Wine Export: The World Slows Down, But Italy Can Accelerate

Il valore invisibile del vino italiano nel mondo tra identità e innovazione ovvero, perché raccontare il territorio, la storia e il piacere è la chiave per vincere nei mercati esteri.

We spoke with Simone Padoan, an internationalization expert and coordinator of Wine Figures, an organization that analyzes global wine market data, to gain a technical and personal perspective on the international wine market, with a particular focus on Italian wine.
In a context where pessimism dominates industry discussions, strategic guidance—especially in comparison with top global competitors—can offer inspiration to producers and distributors who often remain too product-focused, while neglecting the emotional and intangible aspects that add true value.

Let’s begin with a general overview.
You’ve recently analyzed data on Italian wine exports: what global trends are emerging? Are there any signs pointing to a recovery or the start of a new growth phase?

A: Overall, the wine market is experiencing a downturn almost everywhere in the world, and this trend appears to be medium- to long-term. However, Italian wine exports recorded growth in 2024 compared to the previous year, particularly in the sparkling and bottled wine segments. That said, it would be premature to speak of a recovery—the global wine market is undergoing a reorganization, and this process has not yet reached a point of consolidation. Italian producers need to become aware of this and begin implementing strategies that account for further contractions and shifts across various segments.

And looking specifically at the Asian markets?
What kind of evolution are you observing in that part of the world? Which indicators seem most promising to you?

Wine has a certain history in China, but it is not an Asian product. Therefore, broadly speaking, it falls into the category of “exotic” goods—those that attract curiosity but have not yet achieved widespread or consistent consumption. That said, even as an “exotic” item, wine is gradually spreading, and a drinking culture is beginning to take root among certain consumer segments. However, there is still a lack of understanding about what sets Old World wines apart from New World wines. There is a noticeable tendency toward purchasing wines at higher average price points, but the product must be worth the price—because in Asia, there is a strong cultural sensitivity to the value-for-money equation.

Within Asia, are there countries or regions that currently offer greater opportunities for Italian wine? Have you identified any markets that are showing surprising growth or increasing interest in Italian labels?

In Asia, French wine is undoubtedly the market leader, while Italian wine plays the role of a “follower” and must carve out its space by overcoming competition from New World wines. Sparkling wine is gaining traction, but even in this segment, pricing strategy needs reconsideration—current positioning is still too low compared to its true potential.

Asia is often described as a dynamic yet fragmented market.
What, in your opinion, are the most common strategic mistakes that Italian producers risk making when approaching these markets?

Asia is a fragmented market due to the presence of many countries with distinct characteristics, lacking shared customs unions. As a result, each country has its own regulations, languages, and market trends. The most common mistake—one that reflects a chronic and systemic weakness in the Italian wine sector—is the failure to invest in distribution. Most Italian wine is sold on an Ex Works basis, which may be acceptable (though still strategically risky) in a highly structured market like the United States, where a few major distributors exert strong control. However, this approach does not work in Asia, where local distributors are often inadequate.
What is needed are proper logistics and distribution platforms, tailored labels, and adequate customer service. Traveling with a briefcase to explore the market is never a bad idea—it helps build awareness—but after that initial exploration, producers should seriously consider forming consortia and investing collectively in logistics and distribution infrastructure.

In recent months, the issue of tariffs has once again stirred the sector.
How significant do you believe trade tariffs are today on Italian wine exports, and to what extent are they already influencing companies’ commercial decisions?

Tariffs impact pricing: if the cost is passed on to consumers, they tend to reduce spending, which lowers the overall market value. If the cost is absorbed by producers and distributors, profit margins collapse, reducing the market’s attractiveness. Generally speaking, trade barriers are detrimental to all parties involved—tariffs should be applied wisely and sparingly.
Some companies have chosen to lower price lists rather than keep goods in storage. This approach is understandable, but it’s not necessarily a wise long-term move. If you’re too quick to drop your prices and carry on as if nothing has changed, it will be nearly impossible to raise those prices again should tariffs be lifted in the future. In any case, each situation must be evaluated individually.

The partial suspension of U.S. tariffs has refocused attention on international customs dynamics.
We are facing an irrational situation. What has happened has no economic rationale, and there is no economist in the world who can offer a valid justification. This generates panic, as there is no way to understand the possible outcome of a negotiation in which the party that caused the issue cannot even clearly articulate what it truly wants. It is a time of provocation, and we must remain calm — even considering the possibility of exiting or scaling down operations in the U.S. market.

Beyond the United States, are there other markets where it is important to remain highly vigilant from this perspective? Are there any areas that are particularly “sensitive” from a regulatory or tax perspective?

China is a vivid example of a wine market that, despite being significant — ranked 4th or 5th globally — has experienced major disruptions due to political decisions. The Chinese government launched a strong campaign promoting sobriety, banned the consumption of wine and alcoholic beverages at official events, and used anti-dumping measures to effectively halt wine imports from Australia — which had been the second-largest after France — for over two years. The result was a more than 50% drop in wine consumption across the country. Once you step outside the borders of the European Union, every market presents challenges. Thorough research and careful preparation are always essential.

White or red? If you had to identify the main consumption trends across markets, which types of wine are experiencing the most growth in terms of consumer preferences and volume?

When discussing trends and growth, it’s common to make the mistake of interpreting things in relative terms and treating the current hype as a decisive indicator. It’s worth reiterating, therefore, that the undisputed king of imported wine remains red wine — both in volume (around 60% of the global market) and in value per liter. Over the long term, imported white wines have gained traction in non-EU markets, showing growth in both volume and average value per liter, although still below that of red wines.

You recently published a report that provides an in-depth look at these topics.
In your view, what are the three key data points or insights that every producer should keep in mind?

Let’s clarify that we are talking about the imported wine market: global consumption is declining, and there is no reason to expect a rebound in the short or medium term. Even Italian sparkling wines, which often appear to be performing well, are starting to show signs of weakening — with a slight decrease in average value per liter in 2024 compared to 2023. The average value per liter of bottled Italian wine has shown a modest increase, but it still remains low compared to many competitors, including those from the New World — which means there is room for better positioning and pricing.

 

Looking ahead:
What strategies should Italian wineries adopt today to be truly competitive in Eastern markets over the next 3 to 5 years?
What are the key risks for the Italian wine market and producers when it comes to exports in the coming years?

Two advices:

Volumes are expected to decline, and this means it is time to stop treating wine as a commodity. Wine is not defined solely by its organoleptic properties — its intangible qualities must also be highlighted: its connection to the land, culture, tourism, and local food production. While less product may be sold, the focus should shift to creating mechanisms that enhance Added Value. This is sound advice not only for Asian markets, but in Asia, in particular, it can help attract a clientele with significantly higher spending power than the global average.

In Asia, distribution comes first — sales are a consequence of the ability to distribute. It’s time to stop hoping that buyers will simply show up; instead, wineries must invest in platforms, logistics and distribution services, and promotion. Joint investments among multiple companies could be a smart approach, allowing each to preserve its own brand and label identity.

 

Let’s conclude with a personal perspective.
Is there an area or trend that you believe is currently underestimated but deserves much more attention?

In general, I can share a comment made to me by a major international buyer: Italian producers talk too much about the organoleptic characteristics of their wines and too little about the story behind them. Focusing too heavily on tasting notes puts Italian wine in direct competition with Australian wine — but Australian wine lacks the intangible elements that make Italian wine truly unique.

Another thing I’ve noticed while engaging with international markets is that we don’t pay enough attention to pure hedonistic pleasure. Those who drink imported wine aren’t doing it to quench their thirst — they do it to enjoy a moment of pleasure. Wine producers should focus more on how to enhance and elevate the experience they are offering to their consumers.